An agent-based model of COVID-19 pandemic and its variants using fuzzy subsets and real data applied in an island environment

In this paper, we present a model of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic simulated by a multi-agent system (MAS) based on demographic data and medical knowledge. Demographic data are linked to the distribution of the population according to age and to an index of socioeconomic fragility with regard to the elderly. Medical knowledge are related to two risk factors: age and obesity. The contributions of this approach are as follows. Firstly, the two aggravating risk factors are introduced into the MAS using fuzzy sets. Secondly, the worsening of disease caused by these risk factors is modeled by fuzzy aggregation operators. The appearance of virus variants is also introduced into the simulation through a simplified modeling of their contagiousness. Using real data from inhabitants of an island in the Antilles (Guadeloupe, FWI), we model the rate of the population at risk which could be critical cases, if neither social distancing nor barrier gestures are respected by the entire population. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The results show that hospital capacities are exceeded. The socioeconomic fragility index is used to assess mortality and also shows that the number of deaths can be significant. © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press.

FOOD INSECURITY INCREASES THE ODDS OF INTENTIONAL GLUTEN EXPOSURE

Background: Food insecurity, defined as lack of consistent access to enough food for an active, healthy life was projected to affect 1 in 6 children in the United States in 2021. Market basket studies have consistently found that gluten-free (GF) foods are more expensive than their gluten-containing counterparts. We conducted an anonymous survey to determine the prevalence of food insecurity in households with children on a gluten-free diet (GFD) and how it can impact a child's adherence to a GFD. Methods: An anonymous electronic survey was distributed through celiac support groups, national celiac organization newsletters, and social media from March to May 2021. Survey items included demographic and medical information. Food insecurity risk before and during the COVID-19 pandemic was evaluated using the validated adapted Hunger Vital Signs Screener modified with “glutenfree food” to each screening question. Results: The 413 households with children on a GFD that completed the survey primarily self-identified as white (86%, 354). All 10 zip-code regions in the United States were represented. Most had a household income > $80000, resided in a mortgaged home, and were relatively well-educated. The most common reason for a GFD was celiac disease (CD) (92%, 378), and 72% (266) had been on a GFD for >2 years. All households noted a decrease in availability of GF foods during the pandemic (p<0.001). Pre-pandemic, 21% (86) of the households with at least one child following a GFD screened positive for food insecurity. When asked specifically about GF foods, 23% (94) of the households screened positive. Both food insecurity (25%, 104) and GF food insecurity (28%, 116) increased during the pandemic. Both before and during the COVID- 19 pandemic, 5% (19) of the households who were food secure screened positive for GF food insecurity. In one of ten households, individuals on a GFD ate gluten because there were no GF options available. Gluten ingestion due to unavailability of GF foods was higher in households who screened positive for food insecurity (aOR=5) or GF food insecurity (aOR=7). Gluten was eaten before and during the COVID-19 pandemic with a significant increase during the pandemic(p<0.001). Conclusions: Using a nationwide survey, we found that both overall and GF food insecurity have increased for households with children on a GFD. Rates of reported intentional gluten consumption because no GF options were available increased from 1 in 20 households to 1 in 10 households. Food insecurity increased the odds of a household member on a GFD eating gluten on purpose/intentionally. Food insecurity is an underrecognized risk to our celiac patients. Gastroenterologists should incorporate food insecurity screening into their practice for patients on a GFD, especially in the setting of celiac symptom exacerbation.(Figure Presented)Food Insecurity, Intentional Gluten Ingestion and Gluten-Free Food Availability (n=413) (a) Food and Gluten-Free Food Insecurity in Households with Children on a Gluten-Free Diet was measured by screening patients via the validated and adapted Hunger Vital Signs Screener. There was no significant difference in food insecurity before and during the pandemic. (b) Intentional Gluten Ingestion due to Unavailability of Gluten-Free Foods before and during pandemic was compared with test of proportions showing a significant difference (p value < 0.05) (c) Gluten-Free Food availability before the pandemic and (d) Gluten-Free Food availability during the pandemic showed decreasing availability of gluten free foods.

The University Academic Guide and Academic Satisfaction during the COVID - 19 Pandemic

The covid-19 pandemic determined that different governments established mandatory confinement or quarantine;for this reason, the education had to be carried out at a distance or remotely;However, some universities already taught this modality;on the other hand, these changes caused discontent for many students because they were forcibly drawn to this modality without having been the choice for their professional training. In this context, the role played by the academic guide turned out to be fundamental to motivate and keep them hooked, preventing students from abandoning their careers. The objective of the study was to determine the relationship between the accompaniment of the academic guide and the level of academic satisfaction in the students of a private university during the COVID-19 pandemic. The quantitative approach method was used. From the statistical processing, it was concluded that there is a significant relationship between the variables academic guidance and academic satisfaction.

Effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on food insecurity in pediatric celiac disease

Background: The U.S. Department of Agriculture defines food insecurity as a lack of consistent access to enough food for an active, healthy life. Feeding America projects 13 million children (1 in 6) may experience food insecurity in 2021. Currently, a gluten-free diet is the only available treatment for celiac disease. Studies conducted around the world have shown consistently that gluten-free foods are more expensive than their gluten-containing counterparts. State and federal food assistance programs often do not account for the increased cost of gluten-free food. The purpose of our study was to determine the prevalence of food insecurity in families with a child diagnosed with celiac disease and whether or not food security has been affected by the coronavirus 2019(COVID-19) pandemic. Methods: An anonymous electronic survey was distributed through online community celiac support groups as well as national celiac organization newsletters. A total of three messages were posted in each online forum at approximately 2-week intervals. Basic demographic information and medical history was obtained. We evaluated food insecurity risk before COVID-19 and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the validated National Center for Health Statistics US Household Six-Item Short Form Food Security Survey Module. Results: A total of 118 responses were received. Responses were collected from all 10 zip-code regions in the United States. The median age of the gluten-free children was 12 years;34% (38) were male, 82% (97) lived in single child households and 70% (78) attended public school. In the households surveyed, 86% identified their race as white, 58% had salary >$100,000, 84% (92) mortgaged/owned their home and 84% (92) of the parents had at least a bachelor's degree. Most (91%) of the children were following a gluten-free diet for celiac disease, with 80% diagnosed via intestinal biopsy. The majority of participants (65%) had been on gluten-free diet for >2 years. Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, 25% (29) of the participants screened positive for food insecurity and when asked specifically about gluten-free food access, 26% (31) of the participants screened positive. During the COVID-19 pandemic, access to gluten-free foods decreased (31% screened positive for food insecurity) even though the overall rate of food insecurity was stable (26%). 9% (10) of the children had eaten gluten because there were no gluten-free options available. During the COVID-19 pandemic, 35% (41) of the respondents reported that gluten-free foods in the area was limited (often going without things they need) or very poor (purchase most gluten-free foods online). Conclusions: Food insecurity affected nearly 1 in 3 surveyed families of children following a gluten-free diet during the COVID-19 pandemic. This is significantly higher than Feeding America's projections for food insecurity for 2021.There has also been decreased availability of gluten-free foods. During the COVID-19 pandemic, 1 in 10 children with celiac have eaten gluten because there were no gluten-free options available. Given these startling statistics, it is crucial that all gastroenterologists incorporate food insecurity screening into their practice for patients on gluten-free diets and be prepared to provide referrals to appropriate community resources.

THE IMPACT OF COVID-19 MEDIATED BY HUMAN RESILIENCE IN MICROENTREPRENEURS IN THE BRANCH OF BEAUTY

This research aims to analyze the degree of resilience of individual microentrepreneurs who work in the beauty industry in a city in Rio Grande do Norte during the COVID-19 pandemic. For methodological purposes, this study has a descriptive character of a quantitative nature. Virtual interviews were conducted through the WhatsApp app, in compliance with the recommendation of social isolation (WHO, 2020), with ten micro-entrepreneurs in the beauty industry in the city of Mossoro-RN. To understand the reports obtained, we used the technique of Analysis of Nuclei of Sense (ANS), adapted by Mendes (2007). As for the results of the data, new categories emerged associated with the dimensions of human resilience proposed by Perim et al. (2015). Based on the reports presented, in general, the interviewees showed low levels of human resilience. Thus, the study has managerial relevance when considering and analyzing this construct as a personality trait necessary to face moments of crisis and organizational competitiveness. In addition, there is the academic relevance of the research, since there were no studies on resilience of micro-entrepreneurs in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, making this a research gap.

THE HOTELS OF PRAIA DE CANOA QUEBRADA-CE FRONT OF THE PANDEMIC OF COVID-19

The objective of this article is to analyze how the hotel management of Canoa Quebrada-CE is experiencing the context of the pandemic of the Covid-19. In view of this, we sought to understand the impact of the pandemic on the hotel business and to identify the actions adopted and / or planned by the organizations to adapt to the new scenario. This is a qualitative, descriptive research. To this end, interviews were conducted with eight representatives of the Canoa Quebrada-CE sector hotel. Based on Bardin's Content Analysis (2006), it was observed that managers are assuming little prospective behavior, reacting to the environment of uncertainty and loss of revenue only as a last resort and when forced to make strategic decisions. This study contributes to the analysis and discussion of an emerging theme, which represents a social and economic framework for the hotel sector and the world economy.